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White Paper On Independence Launch
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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:45 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
a good read
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some of it quoted

Quote:
The No Camps fraudulent argument

So what argument are the No Campaign using to suggest we shouldn’t have an oil fund, now that at last someone has had the common sense to suggest setting up one before its too late?  Well they claim we can’t start one because the UK is in deficit!  Lets be clear – Scotland is only operating a deficit because we are part of the UK.

We have reliable independent and official Scottish Government income and expenditure figures for 32 years which show that without having to pay for debt generated elsewhere in the UK Scotland would be in surplus right now even allowing for our share of the banking bailouts and despite the impact of losing two banks as a result of poor regulation at Westminster. Indeed, it is a credible argument that because there may be no recovering from the UK’s present fiscal position, Scotland will always be in deficit for as long as we are part of the UK.

Let’s imagine for a moment that an independent Scotland does accept its population or GDP per capita share of debts run up by the UK. The No Campaign claim that if Scotland runs a deficit then you can’t save as you are borrowing to save. However, there are several problems with this flawed contention.

1) Scotland is likely to have returned to surplus in the year before it officially becomes independent in 2016. The UK Chancellor George Osborne cant argue with that as he is predicting that the UK as whole will return to surplus in before independence is declared in 2016.

2) As explained above, Scotland’s fiscal position is better than the rUK’s last year by £4.4bn (coincidentally equivalent to 60% of the Scotland nominal deficit) and so Scotland can return to surplus far more quickly than the UK by merit of simply having a far higher GDP per head.

3) The debt that Scotland will inherit from the UK could be structured at approximately 3.0% interest and last year the Norwegian oil fund returned a staggering 14% profit. So do you pay your long term structured debt back at 3.0% or invest for the future at up to 14%?

Equating the national finances to those of an individual or household makes it easier to understand so I’ll have a go.  Many people have long term structured debt at low interest in the shape of a mortgage but they also have savings accounts, sometimes an investment account and usually a pension. How secure a financial future will you have if all your money goes into a mortgage, none into your pension and none into a savings plan?

You know the answer. And that’s exactly the No Campaign’s proposition – put all your money into your mortgage and don’t put anything into a pension or savings.
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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:22 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
for the few that are interested

at the moment we only control 7% of revenue, just think what we could do with 100% control.. scotland more than pays its way, you only need common sense to see after a yes vote we will keep the pound.

"Scotland’s strong export figures create a trading surplus that enhances UK Sterling’s balance of payments. The UK currently suffers from a large trade deficit, but Scotland’s use of the pound underpins the value of the currency. This is a key reason for why a currency union is in the best interests of the rest of the UK."
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{CA}Colin747
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:31 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
That's like moving out and still having your parents pay your bills Razz
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{CA}CelticJay
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:46 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
I better say nothing to this post but it is a  Mr. Green kind post...
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{CA}Ares0
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:52 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
ZZZzzzzz English peasants do not care...get a life!!!!

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{CA}Ares0
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:03 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
Shocked

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Last edited by Ares0 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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{CA}Ares0
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:03 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
"at the moment we only control 7% of revenue, just think what we could do with 100% control.. scotland more than pays its way, you only need common sense to see after a yes vote we will keep the pound."

Split the UK up into any regions you like Soulfly and you could spin this argument for any of em.......where i live will be "fracked" to the death, doesn't mean we deserve more. I agree your country should be your own...but for god sake do it on your own...no Eng NO London and no £££££......

Can't av best of both worlds bud...independent meams what its meant too..

independence
freedom from being governed or ruled by another country:

independent
adjective (NOT INFLUENCED)
B2 not influenced or controlled in any way by other people, events, or things:
an independent enquiry/organization
They all made the same comment, quite independent of each other (= without deciding together to do so).

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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:26 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
the pound and the bank of england is a scottish asset, same for all 4 nations

assets have to be shared after a yes vote, if the uk were to say no to pound and assets then scotland doesnt need to take on any of the debt

its in the best interest of scotland and uk we share pound, why doesnt pm pm say no now?? if it did, it could help with the no vote...


ireland shared the pound for 50 years, is it not independent?

watch these


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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 1:11 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
here is the real facts on money and more, watch it all please



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{CA}Colin747
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:59 am Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
oops
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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:52 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
haha

they are playing poker at the moment, a bluff to put doubt in the mind of voters, saying no to a currency union after a yes vote would cause alot of problems for the uk, can list if you want

the uk gov cant stop the use of pound mate, thats a fact, we can still go on and use it.. infact some say we would be better off, not havning to take on share of uk debt etc


Commenting on the Chancellor George Osborne’s announcement today that is likely to rule out an English currency union with an independent Scotland, the Adam Smith Institute’s Research Director Sam Bowman said:
“An independent Scotland would not need England’s permission to continue using the pound sterling, and in fact would be better off using the pound without such permission.
“There is very little that an English government would actually be able to do to stop Scottish people from continuing to use the pound sterling if they wanted to.
“As the American economist George Selgin has pointed out, what the Prime Minister really means is that the Bank of England would not act as a guarantor for Scottish banks or the Scottish government. Lucky Scotland: the implied promise of a bailout from the European Central Bank is exactly what allowed Eurozone banks and governments to borrow cheaply and get themselves into a debt crisis.
“Scotland’s position would be closer to that of countries like Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador, which use the US Dollar without American “permission”, and, according to research by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, consequentially have far more prudent and stable financial systems than if they were part of a formal currency union.
“An independent Scotland that used the pound as its base currency without the English government’s permission, with banks continuing to issue notes privately and private citizens free to choose any currency they wanted, would probably have a more stable financial system and economy than England itself.
“It’s up to Scots to decide whether they want independence, but the Chancellor’s announcement today should be seen as a feature, not a bug.”
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or phone 02072224995.
The Adam Smith Institute is an independent libertarian think tank based in London. It advocates liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.
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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:59 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
also


The positive arguments for the retention of the British pound sterling (GBP) by an independent Scotland  outweigh the arguments for the establishment of an independent free-floating currency argue Deutsche Bank.

In September 2014 the Scottish people will vote on independence from the UK, which has raised the issue of what kind of currency regime an independent Scotland would face.

The current Scottish government has made it clear that it wishes to keep the British pound sterling as opposed to introducing an independent free-floating currency.

The idea being proposed is that an independent Scottish economy operates within a 'Sterling Zone' - the closest and most obvious  comparison being that of the Eurozone.



The benefits of keeping the British pound sterling

There are two reasons why the Scottish Government have proposed keeping the British pound.

Firstly, they believe voters will be more likely to vote for independence should sterling be retained.

Secondly, it makes economic sense.

Deutsche Bank's Macro Strategist Oliver Harvey point out the following economic benefits of sticking with Sterling:

Scotland’s business cycle is highly correlated to that of the rest of the UK which is by far Scotland's most important trading partner. It is even more correlated to the rest of the UK than certain English regions (Yorkshire and Humber, the East Midlands). Therefore, the idea that currency devaluation will boost Scottish exports fails to stand.
The argument that Scotland would not be able to finance the stock of debt it assumes from the rest of the UK by gaining fiscal independence and ceding monetary independence is seriously flawed. Instead, the risks associated with adopting a different currency could be far greater.
Were existing liabilities transferred into Scottish currency, foreign investors would not only be instantly exposed to currency risk, but it would also provide a huge incentive for the Scottish government to monetize the debt.
This could spark a crisis in investor confidence and capital flight. The massive spikes in peripheral bond yields during the height of the Eurozone crisis were associated with precisely this phenomenon as mark et priced in monetary union breakup.
Scotland would cede a substantial part of policy independence by being forced to defend the purchasing power of its independent currency.
Keeping the pound could be a crucial factor in retaining investor confidence in an independent Scotland.
Scotland would accrue the advantages of ‘importing’ the UK’s inflation regime, further strengthening credibility.
Scotland would incur significant costs by adopting its own currency.


But the UK won't want a Sterling Zone

So, the arguments presented by Deutsche Bank for Scotland using the British pound sterling within a Sterling Zone ultimately hinge on the realistation that there is little benefit to Scotland of adopting its own currency.

The problem for Scotland is that the rest of the UK appears opposed to the creating of a Sterling Zone that is shared between the UK and the Scottish.

Both George Osborne, the Chancellor, and Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, have made clear they are not in favour of the proposal.



So, what would an independent Scotland do?

The answer according to Deutsche Bank would be for the Scottish to peg their currency to that of the UK.

Harvey says:  

"If the UK was unwilling to allow Scotland to remain a formal part of sterling area following independence, the Scottish government would have other options to retain the advantages provided by monetary union.

"The Scottish government could peg an independent currency to the pound, either via a conventional peg or currency board similar to the one used by Hong Kong.

"A peg may also provide additional policy flexibility in the event that imbalances were to emerge."

It should be kept in mind however that maintaining a currency pegging regime would also require Scotland to hold sufficient reserves to defend it.

"This may present a problem for a future Scottish government, given that UK reserves are relatively small relative to GDP," says Harvey.

To sum up, Scotland's business cycle is highly correlated to the rest of the UK, it is highly competitive and an exit from the sterling area could spark a market crisis if UK liabilities were transferred.

"We suggest that if the country were unable to remain formally part of the sterling area, it could peg its currency to the pound," says Harvey.
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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:07 pm Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
some good points ;)


Alex Salmond's speech on currency union and independence


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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:34 am Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote

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{CA}Soulfly
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 12:23 am Post subject: No icon Re: White Paper On Independence Launch Reply with quote
thought id spam these for anyone interested

No Camp Economics Scare Stories Debunked #1 – The Bank Bailouts

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No Camp Economics Debunked #2  – Know Who Subsidises Who?

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No Camp Economics Debunked #3 – Pensions Secure and Guaranteed

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No Camp Economics Debunked #4 – Currency rUK Needs Plan A

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No Camp Economics Debunked #5 – The Costs of Independence

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